Poker Strategy
Calculating Odds in Poker
Learning how poker odds work is easy and will both save you a lot of money at the poker tables. Many amateur players call with a variety of drawing hands without proper odds, which is essentially a losing playing style.
This is one of the reasons why knowing some basic poker odds will give you an immediate edge against a majority of your opponents - at least at low to medium levels. It will also add to your general understanding of the game.
To calculate the odds you need to know your current number of outs, that is, how many cards out of those left in the deck that will improve your hand. If you hold a nut flush draw with four cards to a flush on the flop in Texas Holdem, for instance, there are nine cards of the same suit left in the deck (as far as you know) that gives you the winning hand. There are 52 cards in the deck, and you have seen five of them; out of the remaining 47, 9 cards are outs and 38 are non-outs. 38/9 = 4,22, which is your current odds against making a flush on the turn.
For obvious reasons you probably don't want to count your outs and calculate the odds while playing, which makes it more practical to memorize the odds of the most common draws.
A few common drawing hands:
| Outs | Example Hand | Drawing to | Flop - Turn Odds | Flop - River Odds |
| 2 | Pocket pair | Three-of-a-kind | 22,5:1 (4%) | 10,9:1 (8%) |
| 4 | Inside straight draw | Straight | 10,8:1 (9%) | 5,1:1 (16%) |
| 6 | Two over-cards | Pair | 6, 8:1 (13%) | 3, 1:1 (24%) |
| 8 | Open-ended straight draw | Straight | 4, 9:1 (17%) | 2, 2:1 (31%) |
| 9 | Flush draw (4 to a flush) | Flush | 4, 2:1 (19%) | 1, 9:1 (35%) |
| 14 | Pair + flush draw | Two pair, trips, flush | 2, 4:1 (30%) | 1:1 (51%) |
| 21 | Two over-cards, open-ended straight flush draw | Pair, straight, flush, straight flush | 1, 2:1 (45%) | 0, 4:1 (70%) |
Pot Odds
To make proper use of poker odds you need to apply the pot odds before deciding whether a certain action is worthwhile. The pot odds are essentially the ratio between the current size of the pot and the size of the bet or call, i.e., if the pot contains $20 and your opponent bets $10, the pot odds for a call are 1:3, ($20 + $10) / $10 = 3.
Depending on the betting structure, you have - to a certain extent - the opportunity to manipulate the pot odds to your own advantage. If you have a made hand in no-limit holdem, for instance, you may want to make a bet that is large enough not to give your opponent proper odds for a possible drawing hand. And if you're on a draw yourself, you will correspondingly need the right price to call.
Example: If you hold 8-9 and the flop shows A-6-7, your odds of catching a straight on the turn are about 4,9:1, so if you plan to call a bet on the flop (without considering implied odds) the call should preferably be no more than a fifth of the total pot. This is why limit games are more suitable for draws than no-limit games, but in view of possible implied odds, draws may be profitable even in a no-limit or pot-limit game.
Implied odds
With additional betting rounds to come, you also have to factor in the implied odds. If you think your opponent has a strong made hand and will call a large bet or raise on a later round, your effective odds will be better than the odds at present. In other words: you might want to make a call without the proper pot odds just because your opponent is preparing to pay you off on later streets.
This is mostly a judgment call, taking into consideration the playing style of your opponent, but it also depends on how well hidden your hand is. A straight is more concealed than a flush, and a hidden three-of-a-kind is preferable to trips with a pair on the board and so on.
